Oxford academics release paper identifing methodology to address complex global and political challenges
Oxford, Oxfordshire (PRWEB UK) 28 October 2015 -- Oxford academics have called for a radical new approach to research in complex fields such as migration and climate change in order to make valuable practical contributions to long-term policy discussions.
Dr Rafael Ramirez, Senior Fellow in Strategy, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, argues that scenarios – more commonly used as an innovative planning tool to explore possible future contexts in different markets – can help to identify research needs that are not being met, broaden fields of inquiry, and make important connections between different disciplines and areas of study.
‘The problem with today’s typically incremental, discipline-bound, gap-spotting approach to research is that it doesn’t produce the intellectual breakthroughs or challenging questions needed to address the complex and interlinked problems facing the world, such as climate change and shifting demographics, inequality, food insecurity, and migration,’ said Dr Ramirez. ‘Research on the future of international migration, for example, tends to rely on projections with today’s conditions as a starting point. They never ask, “what effects might developing technology have on migration?” or “under what circumstances do people stop trying to adapt to environmental changes and decide to emigrate instead?” Using scenarios can help researchers identify and consider these surprising and apparently unconnected influences.’
Dr Ramirez and his co-authors, Dr Malobi Mukherjee (Oxford Institute of Retail Management, Oxford Saïd), Simona Vezzoli (International Migration Institute, Oxford Department of International Development) and Dr Arnoldo Matus Kramer (100 Resilient Cities and Ithaca Environmental) discuss the potential contribution of scenarios as a research tool in ‘Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce “interesting research”’, Futures, August 2015. In the paper they describe and analyse three research studies which used the scenarios methodology in three distinct fields – retail management, international migration, and climate change adaptation- to make the research both accessible and rigorous.
Scenarios for retail format development in India
By using a scenarios methodology to provide multiple perspectives on how Indian retailing could develop, the researchers sought to broaden what they considered to be a myopic view of Indian retail development, which at the time of the research had become the topic of fierce debate in the public arena.
The resultant scenarios and their implications transcended ‘common-sense’ solutions and provided non-obvious insights, particularly in identifying a possible hybrid model of retailing which had not previously been thought of.
Exploring international migration futures in Europe and the Mediterranean
This study, launched in 2009, sought to challenge conventional approaches to migration forecasting and to present international migration as part of broader long-term historical processes, rather than as a problem to be resolved. The scenarios methodology meant that factors not commonly considered could be included in the research because they may have a direct or indirect role in shaping international migration (e.g. labour market structures and modes of production); assumptions that may have remained unquestioned due to the politicised discourse on international migration could be challenged; highly unstable and uncertain factors (e.g. economic growth and opportunity structures, political developments) could be examined and evaluated for their potential impact and unexpected consequences on international migration patterns; and stakeholders, including policy-makers, could be involved.
As a consequence, questions emerged about the appropriateness of current immigration policies based on short-term visions. Academics were also able to identify further areas of study such as the effects of a ‘youth bulge’ in developing countries and the implications of robotics developments on employment.
Climate change adaptation and tourism in the Mexican Caribbean
This study used scenarios as the core research methodology to examine what different actors in the public, private, and social sectors identified as options and barriers for climate change adaptation. It challenged neoliberal policies and the theories supporting mass tourism and economic growth by identifying long-term sustainability issues that would arise, and by helping local stakeholders to consider alternative adaptation policy options.
The scenarios helped to consider an alternative, more environmentally friendly form of future coastal tourism development associated with a longer-term development vision. Using the scenarios, stakeholders identified 23 adaptation measures, prioritised these in each of three time periods (2010–2015, 2015–2020, and 2020–2030) and identified 33 barriers that could prevent adaptation.
‘In each of these three cases, using scenarios as a research methodology encouraged an interdisciplinary approach in which different perspectives were sought, conventional assumptions were challenged and new and surprising routes of inquiry opened up,’ said Dr Ramirez. ‘This sort of thinking is vital in generating responses to so-called ‘wicked’ problems for which there is no simple solution.’
For more information or to speak with Rafael Ramirez please contact the press office:
Jonaid Jilani, Press Officer, Saïd Business School
Tel: +44 (0)1865 614678, Mob: +44 (0)7860 259996
Email: jonaid.jilani(at)sbs.ox.ac.uk
Kate Richards, Press Officer,
Mobile: +44 (0) 7711000521; Tel: +44 (0) 1865 288879
Email: kate.richards(at)sbs.ox.ac.uk
Notes to Editors
1. About Saïd Business School
Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford blends the best of new and old. We are a vibrant and innovative business school, but yet deeply embedded in an 800 year old world-class university. We create programmes and ideas that have global impact. We educate people for successful business careers, and as a community seek to tackle world-scale problems. We deliver cutting-edge programmes and ground-breaking research that transform individuals, organisations, business practice, and society. We seek to be a world-class business school community, embedded in a world-class University, tackling world-scale problems.
In the Financial Times European Business School ranking (Dec 2014) Oxford Saïd is ranked 10th. It is ranked 10th worldwide in the FT’s combined ranking of Executive Education programmes (May 2015) and 22nd in the world in the FT ranking of MBA programmes (Jan 2015). The MBA is ranked 7th in Businessweek’s full time MBA ranking outside the USA (Nov 2014) and is ranked 5th among the top non-US Business Schools by Forbes magazine (Sep 2013). The Executive MBA is ranked 2nd worldwide in the Economist’s Executive MBA ranking (Sep 2015) and 9th worldwide in the FT’s ranking of EMBAs (Oct 2015). The Oxford MSc in Financial Economics is ranked 14th in the world in the FT ranking of Masters in Finance programmes (Jun 2015). In the UK university league tables it is ranked first of all UK universities for undergraduate business and management in The Guardian (Jun 2015) and 2nd in The Times (Sept 2015). For more information, see http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/
Emily McDonnell, University of Oxford, +44 1865288403, [email protected]
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